:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1124 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
09/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1845Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5051 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 122
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  006/005-011/015-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/65
