:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 615 km/s at 10/0807Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/1038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/0621Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4812 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Oct), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 121
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  011/015-018/028-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/45
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/65/60
