:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 11/0835Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 11/1822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 11/2037Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2784 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (14 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 131
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 130/135/140
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  018/025-015/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/60/40
