:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct,
15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 914 km/s at 12/0407Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 12/0244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 12/0057Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1707 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 143
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 140/145/145
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  024/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  015/018-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/15/20
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/25/30
