:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 946 km/s at 12/2315Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 12/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/2345Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4077 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 141
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 145/150/150
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  018/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  011/012-008/012-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/45/65
