:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 15 1310 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 742 km/s at 14/0146Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/1938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/0019Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (16 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (17 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 154
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/012-020/028-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           15/40/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    45/75/65
