:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 15/0558Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2317Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2846 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (16 Oct), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (18 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 162
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  020/028-019/025-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           40/25/05
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    75/65/30
