:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Oct,
18 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 15/2235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/2023Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3769 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    60/60/40
Class X    15/15/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 161
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 162/165/155
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  019/025-013/016-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor Storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/45
