:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (20 Oct) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (21 Oct,
22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 19/1936Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 18/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 19/1654Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 443 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    25/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 149
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 150/152/150
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  011/012-010/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/25
