:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 524 km/s at 21/2210Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
22/1757Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2031Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 446 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (25 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 133
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/10/25
