:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 501 km/s at 23/2001Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
23/0950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/1647Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 23/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 681 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 130
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  006/005-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/20
