:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 24/2105Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/0353Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 605 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (27 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(28 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 127
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  007/008-010/012-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/35
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    20/45/75
