:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 455 km/s at 26/1004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/0513Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 439 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct), active to minor
storm levels on day two (28 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (29 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 124
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  010/012-024/035-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor Storm           15/35/30
Major-severe storm    01/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    45/75/70
