:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 27/2057Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
27/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/1602Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 899 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (28 Oct) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 121
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  024/035-021/030-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           35/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    75/70/60
