:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 28/1900Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 28/1810Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
28/2046Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 516 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (29 Oct, 30
Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 122
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  021/030-020/025-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/60/45
