:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 29/1605Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 29/0029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 28/2132Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 333 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 118
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 118/115/130
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  020/025-014/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/25
