:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 677 km/s at 30/2040Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 30/1012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 30/1023Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 393 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (31 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 120
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 120/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  027/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  014/018-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/25
