:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (02 Nov, 03
Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak near 750 km/s around 31/0200Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 31/0129Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4,767 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to reach active levels through 03 Nov.

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 125
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 125/130/132
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  024/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  015/018-014/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/40
