:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (02 Nov) and expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 31/2320Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/2008Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10573 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    25/35/45
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 115
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  013/013-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/30
