:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov,
05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 02/0719Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/0039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1816Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 12610 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    25/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 123
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  013/015-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/10
