:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 02/2118Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 03/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 03/1335Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6363 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet levels on
day two (05 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 133
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  008/012-006/008-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/35
Minor Storm           05/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/10/60
