:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1009Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2438 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07
Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 159
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  006/008-016/018-020/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/60/65
