:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07
Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 05/1842Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 05/1817Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 05/1820Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2289 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (06 Nov), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (08 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 147
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 145/150/150
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  023/038-043/076-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    60/65/65
