:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08
Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 06/1924Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 06/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 06/0414Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (07 Nov), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (08 Nov) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 163
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  036/058
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  043/076-023/034-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor Storm           35/30/15
Major-severe storm    35/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    79/65/50
