:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 859 km/s at 07/1028Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 07/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 07/0539Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (08 Nov), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (09 Nov) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 166
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  031/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  032/046
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  026/035-015/018-022/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           40/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    75/50/45
