:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 07/2204Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 07/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 08/0037Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1122 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (10 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 172
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 172/170/175
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  020/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  032/049
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  015/018-022/030-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           30/40/15
Major-severe storm    15/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    70/79/50
