:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11
Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 670 km/s at 08/2100Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/0354Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1046 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to major storm levels
on day three (12 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 176
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 175/180/180
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  025/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  013/018-023/035-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/30
Minor Storm           30/40/35
Major-severe storm    15/30/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    65/79/80
