:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12
Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 09/2102Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/1228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/2113Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 30 pfu at 10/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4275 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (11 Nov), unsettled
to severe storm levels on day two (12 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (13 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
day one (11 Nov), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (12
Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     99/50/35
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 180
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 182/182/182
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  023/035-034/052-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor Storm           40/35/30
Major-severe storm    30/35/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    79/85/65
