:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 969 km/s at 12/1946Z. Total
IMF reached 61 nT at 12/0036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -55 nT at 11/2357Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1456 pfu at 12/0215Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 37 pfu at 12/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit appeared to be contaminated.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (13 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (14 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (15 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(13 Nov), are expected to cross threshold on day two (14 Nov) and are
likely to cross threshold on day three (15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    55/55/55
Proton     99/75/55
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 163
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  113/144
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  059/097-016/022-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/20
Minor Storm           35/25/05
Major-severe storm    50/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/10/15
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    90/55/25
