:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 746 km/s at 13/2147Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/1704Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 14/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 534 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (16 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (17 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day
one (15 Nov), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Nov)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    70/70/60
Class X    30/30/20
Proton     40/25/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 145
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 145/135/130
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  043/059
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/008-011/015-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/40
Minor Storm           05/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/55/65
