:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and likely
to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (18 Nov)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 727 km/s at 16/0850Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 16/0519Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 16/0422Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 555 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    55/20/10
Class X    15/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 132
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  017/022-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           30/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/45/35
