:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 17/0641Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/0308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0138Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 829 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 122
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  011/012-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/35/25
