:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/2306Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
19/1306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
19/1739Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1438 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 123
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  009/012-013/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/25
