:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 456 km/s at 20/1651Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at
20/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
20/1937Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2883 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 121
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  013/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20
