:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 23/1644Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 23/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
23/1157Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 596 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (25 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 120
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  007/008-009/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor Storm           05/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/60/70
