:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 756 km/s at 24/1721Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 24/1039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 24/1107Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 344 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Nov) and active levels on day three
(27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 116
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-017/025-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    60/70/70
