:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 874 km/s at 25/1054Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 24/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 25/0811Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3722 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27
Nov) and active levels on day three (28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 116
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  023/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  026/036-021/030-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/25
Minor Storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/70/35
