:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 779 km/s at 26/2242Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 27/1714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 27/1131Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8297 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active levels on day one (28 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 120
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  015/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  021/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  018/025-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35
