:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov,
01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 27/2158Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 27/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 28/1123Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 14759 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 138
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 140/150/150
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  023/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  010/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15
