:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 29/1754Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 29/1432Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 29/1325Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 23004 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels on
days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 160
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 160/165/170
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  011/012-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/15
