:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 30/0231Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 30/0152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/0102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8309 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Dec).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 180
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 190/190/190
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  012/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  008/008-005/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/40
Minor Storm           05/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/60
