:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 01 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (02 Dec) and likely to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (03 Dec,
04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 30/2317Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2311Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8521 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (03 Dec) and active to major storm levels on day three (04
Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Dec),
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Dec) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    80/70/70
Class X    30/30/25
Proton     25/20/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 196
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 195/195/200
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  005/005-018/024-025/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/35
Minor Storm           01/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/60/65
