:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04
Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 02/0639Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/1019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0249Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 8535 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (03 Dec), active to
major storm levels on day two (04 Dec) and active levels on day three
(05 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 200
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 205/210/210
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  019/025-025/035-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/40
Minor Storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    79/79/70
