:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 748 km/s at 05/0710Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1917Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1425 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Dec,
07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 206
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 205/205/200
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  024/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  010/012-012/018-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/65/65
