:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 06/1007Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/1035Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08
Dec) and quiet levels on day three (09 Dec). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08
Dec, 09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 200
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 195/190/190
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  012/018-014/018-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/10
Minor Storm           25/25/01
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/65/15
