:Product: 1207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 732 km/s at 06/2106Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 07/1318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/0216Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1452 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10
Dec) and minor storm to severe storm levels on day two (09 Dec). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 194
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec 190/190/185
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  013/018-048/070-022/033

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/35
Minor Storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    20/50/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    70/85/75
