:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec,
16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 13/1902Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 13/0844Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 12/2102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 122
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  010/012-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/25
