:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec,
17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 13/2230Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/2030Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 378 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 119
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  010/010-008/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/30
