:Product: 1215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 14/2119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1327Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 809 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (18 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 118
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 120/120/118
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  008/008-013/015-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/50/70
