:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec,
25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 800 km/s at 22/1535Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 21/2241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 21/2254Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1882 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Dec), unsettled
to active levels on day two (24 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    30/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 133
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 135/140/145
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  020/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  015/020-013/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/40/40
